Japan Property Correction Monitor¶
Updated 2026-10-14. Since 2024 the Bank of Japan has been raising interest rates. This site tracks, region by region, how far Japan's housing market is correcting, using Japanese government data and our own market-phase score. Detailed area pages: Japan property market by area. 日本語版
Market phase by region¶
Adjustment pressure (0-100) is our own score from inventory, transaction counts, closing prices and the gap between asking and closing prices: 0-20 overheating, 20-40 plateau, 40-60 early correction, 60-80 correction under way, 80-100 declining. "(simplified)" marks areas scored from quarterly MLIT closing data only.
| Area | Adjustment pressure | Phase | Confidence | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central 3 Wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato) | 100 | Declining | low | 2026-08 |
| Central Osaka 6 Wards (Kita, Chuo, Nishi, Fukushima, Tennoji, Naniwa) | 100 | Insufficient data (reference only) | low | 2026-08 |
| Tokyo 23 Wards | 83 | Declining | high | 2026-08 |
| Japan (national) | 78 | Correction under way | mid | 2026-09 |
| Nara Prefecture | 73 | Correction under way (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Iwate Prefecture | 67 | Correction under way (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Yamagata Prefecture | 67 | Correction under way (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Osaka Prefecture | 65 | Correction under way | high | 2026-09 |
| Greater Tokyo (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba) | 63 | Correction under way | high | 2026-08 |
| Kinki Region (Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, Nara, Shiga, Wakayama) | 59 | Early correction | high | 2026-09 |
| Aomori Prefecture | 57 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Shimane Prefecture | 57 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Gifu Prefecture | 53 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Kumamoto Prefecture | 53 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Tochigi Prefecture | 47 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Ehime Prefecture | 47 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Kyoto Prefecture | 46 | Early correction | high | 2026-09 |
| Wakayama Prefecture | 44 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Osaka City | 44 | Early correction | high | 2026-09 |
| Fukui Prefecture | 43 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Gunma Prefecture | 42 | Early correction (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Okinawa Prefecture | 39 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Kagoshima Prefecture | 39 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Central 6 Wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo, Shibuya) | 33 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) | low | 2026-08 |
| Tottori Prefecture | 33 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Kochi Prefecture | 33 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Yamanashi Prefecture | 30 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Tokyo Bayside (Chuo, Koto, Minato waterfront) | 30 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Miyazaki Prefecture | 28 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Saga Prefecture | 27 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Miyagi Prefecture | 25 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Mie Prefecture | 25 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Yamaguchi Prefecture | 25 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Hyogo Prefecture | 24 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) | high | 2026-09 |
| Central 5 Wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya) | 22 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Hiroshima Prefecture | 22 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Akita Prefecture | 20 | Plateau (high prices, easing demand) (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Hokkaido | 19 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Shizuoka Prefecture | 19 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Okayama Prefecture | 19 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Shiga Prefecture | 19 | Overheating / still rising | high | 2026-09 |
| Tokyo Metropolis | 17 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Chubu Region | 17 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Aichi Prefecture | 17 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Kobe City | 17 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Fukushima Prefecture | 17 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Tokushima Prefecture | 17 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Sendai City | 15 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Karuizawa | 14 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| South-west Tokyo 6 Wards | 11 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| North-east Tokyo 11 Wards | 11 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Sapporo City | 11 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Kanagawa Prefecture | 11 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Niigata Prefecture | 11 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Ishikawa Prefecture | 11 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Fukuoka Prefecture | 11 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Nagano Prefecture | 8 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Nagoya City | 7 | Overheating / still rising | mid | 2026-08 |
| Toyama Prefecture | 7 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2025-Q4 |
| Nagasaki Prefecture | 7 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Ibaraki Prefecture | 3 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Kagawa Prefecture | 3 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Oita Prefecture | 3 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Chiba Prefecture | 0 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Rest of Kanagawa | 0 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Saitama Prefecture | 0 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Yokohama City | 0 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Saitama City | 0 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Chiba City | 0 | Overheating / still rising | low | 2026-08 |
| Yokohama and Kawasaki | 0 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
| Fukuoka City | 0 | Overheating / still rising (simplified) | low | 2026-Q1 |
Interest rates¶
| Rate | Latest | Change over 12 months | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOJ policy rate | 1.250% | +0.75pt | Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings |
| JGB 2-year yield | 1.936% | +1.01pt | Ministry of Finance JGB yields |
| JGB 10-year yield | 3.089% | +1.42pt | Ministry of Finance JGB yields |
| Short-term prime rate | 2.625% | — | Published by banks (compiled by the Bank of Japan) |
| Variable mortgage rate (megabank minimum) | 1.195% | — | Published by banks |
| Flat 35 fixed mortgage rate (minimum, 21-35 years) | 3.830% | +1.94pt | Japan Housing Finance Agency |
More¶
- Japan property market by area: all 47 prefectures, major cities and resorts, plus 45 major wards and cities
- Map of official land prices (Japanese labels)
- Weekly changes and RSS (Japanese)
This service uses the API of the MLIT Real Estate Information Library, but the timeliness, accuracy and completeness of the information provided are not guaranteed. (このサービスは、国土交通省不動産情報ライブラリのAPI機能を使用していますが、提供情報の最新性、正確性、完全性等が保証されたものではありません。)