South-west Tokyo 6 Wards¶
The south-west and west wards such as Meguro, Setagaya and Shinagawa. Highly regarded residential areas driven mainly by owner-occupier families.
Current phase¶
Overheating / still rising (simplified) (adjustment pressure 11 / 100, confidence low, as of 2026-Q1)
There are no monthly market statistics for this area, so this is a simplified call based on MLIT's quarterly closing data (year-on-year change in price per m² and in counts, and consecutive quarters of decline). For prefectures it also uses the gap between official land prices and land transaction prices in the same districts, and the year-on-year change in resident population. The data lag about three months.
What to watch: Whether buyers' capacity (rising variable mortgage rates) shows up in transaction counts.
Resale condominium closing prices (MLIT)¶
Price per m² in units of ¥10,000 (万円). Quarters with fewer than 10 closings are not shown.
| Quarter | Median price per m² (¥10k) | Closings |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q2 | 96.0 | 1,215 |
| 2024 Q3 | 93.3 | 1,073 |
| 2024 Q4 | 97.1 | 1,265 |
| 2025 Q1 | 95.3 | 1,652 |
| 2025 Q2 | 96.4 | 1,609 |
| 2025 Q3 | 100.0 | 1,523 |
| 2025 Q4 | 102.9 | 1,540 |
| 2026 Q1 | 104.3 | 1,584 |
- Year-on-year change in median price per m²: +9.4% (2026 Q1)
By floor plan (resale condominiums, last 4 quarters)¶
2025 Q2 to 2026 Q1. Floor plans with fewer than 10 closings are not shown. "S" (service room) is not counted as a room.
| Floor plan | Closings | Median price (¥10k) | Median per m² (¥10k) | Median size (m²) | Per m², year on year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio / 1K / 1DK | 1,060 | 2,100 | 80.0 | 25.0 | +0.0% |
| 1LDK | 1,119 | 5,000 | 106.7 | 45.0 | +6.7% |
| 2 rooms (2K-2LDK) | 2,155 | 6,600 | 105.0 | 60.0 | +5.0% |
| 3 rooms (3K-3LDK) | 1,818 | 8,300 | 107.1 | 75.0 | +10.1% |
| 4 rooms or more | 104 | 9,850 | 92.8 | 90.0 | +12.2% |
Houses and land (MLIT)¶
Transaction prices from MLIT's survey of registered sales. Prices in ¥10,000. Quarters with fewer than 20 deals are not shown.
| Quarter | Median house price (¥10k) | House deals | Houses under ¥10m | Median land price per m² (¥10k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q2 | 9,300 | 594 | 0.3% | 81.2 |
| 2025 Q3 | 9,500 | 571 | 0.7% | 85.5 |
| 2025 Q4 | 9,500 | 504 | 0.0% | 85.6 |
| 2026 Q1 | 9,200 | 163 | 0.6% | 82.9 |
Official land prices (Chika Koji, MLIT)¶
Prices of standard sites as of 1 January each year (published in March). The change is the average for sites that continue from the previous year.
| Year | Use | Median (¥ per m²) | Change | Sites |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Commercial | 979,000 | +6.8% | 163 |
| 2025 | Commercial | 1,100,000 | +11.2% | 161 |
| 2026 | Commercial | 1,280,000 | +13.4% | 161 |
| 2024 | Residential | 673,000 | +5.2% | 320 |
| 2025 | Residential | 718,000 | +8.0% | 315 |
| 2026 | Residential | 778,000 | +8.8% | 315 |
This service uses the API of the MLIT Real Estate Information Library, but the timeliness, accuracy and completeness of the information provided are not guaranteed. (このサービスは、国土交通省不動産情報ライブラリのAPI機能を使用していますが、提供情報の最新性、正確性、完全性等が保証されたものではありません。)
Figures are medians of individual transactions and change with the mix of what sold. Regime labels are our own interpretation, not investment advice.