Nagano Prefecture¶
Resorts such as Karuizawa and Hakuba, the cities of Nagano and Matsumoto, and mountain villages. Second-home and migration demand is rising at the same time as vacant homes.
Current phase¶
Overheating / still rising (simplified) (adjustment pressure 8 / 100, confidence low, as of 2026-Q1)
There are no monthly market statistics for this area, so this is a simplified call based on MLIT's quarterly closing data (year-on-year change in price per m² and in counts, and consecutive quarters of decline). For prefectures it also uses the gap between official land prices and land transaction prices in the same districts, and the year-on-year change in resident population. The data lag about three months.
What to watch: Regional differences in house and land prices; inheritance-related registrations.
Resale condominium closing prices (MLIT)¶
Price per m² in units of ¥10,000 (万円). Quarters with fewer than 10 closings are not shown.
| Quarter | Median price per m² (¥10k) | Closings |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q2 | 42.0 | 48 |
| 2024 Q3 | 35.6 | 43 |
| 2024 Q4 | 35.8 | 56 |
| 2025 Q1 | 36.3 | 36 |
| 2025 Q2 | 41.2 | 56 |
| 2025 Q3 | 43.3 | 55 |
| 2025 Q4 | 38.8 | 59 |
| 2026 Q1 | 43.6 | 50 |
- Year-on-year change in median price per m²: +20.2% (2026 Q1)
By floor plan (resale condominiums, last 4 quarters)¶
2025 Q2 to 2026 Q1. Floor plans with fewer than 10 closings are not shown. "S" (service room) is not counted as a room.
| Floor plan | Closings | Median price (¥10k) | Median per m² (¥10k) | Median size (m²) | Per m², year on year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio / 1K / 1DK | 20 | 335 | 12.6 | 35.0 | — |
| 1LDK | 18 | 2,200 | 37.3 | 55.0 | -2.1% |
| 2 rooms (2K-2LDK) | 88 | 4,200 | 53.3 | 75.0 | +14.3% |
| 3 rooms (3K-3LDK) | 79 | 3,200 | 40.0 | 80.0 | +13.8% |
| 4 rooms or more | 15 | 3,000 | 33.8 | 90.0 | — |
Houses and land (MLIT)¶
Transaction prices from MLIT's survey of registered sales. Prices in ¥10,000. Quarters with fewer than 20 deals are not shown.
| Quarter | Median house price (¥10k) | House deals | Houses under ¥10m | Median land price per m² (¥10k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q2 | 1,500 | 496 | 40.5% | 1.6 |
| 2025 Q3 | 1,600 | 527 | 36.4% | 2.1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 1,600 | 587 | 38.3% | 1.5 |
| 2026 Q1 | 1,250 | 256 | 45.3% | 1.5 |
Official land prices (Chika Koji, MLIT)¶
Prices of standard sites as of 1 January each year (published in March). The change is the average for sites that continue from the previous year.
| Year | Use | Median (¥ per m²) | Change | Sites |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Commercial | 47,250 | -0.0% | 112 |
| 2025 | Commercial | 46,900 | +0.4% | 110 |
| 2026 | Commercial | 46,850 | +0.6% | 110 |
| 2024 | Residential | 30,300 | +0.3% | 212 |
| 2025 | Residential | 31,150 | +0.7% | 208 |
| 2026 | Residential | 30,450 | +1.2% | 208 |
This service uses the API of the MLIT Real Estate Information Library, but the timeliness, accuracy and completeness of the information provided are not guaranteed. (このサービスは、国土交通省不動産情報ライブラリのAPI機能を使用していますが、提供情報の最新性、正確性、完全性等が保証されたものではありません。)
Figures are medians of individual transactions and change with the mix of what sold. Regime labels are our own interpretation, not investment advice.